housing crash again?

[Chic Rustler]

ok I'm gonna make a prediction. I predict the housing market will crash again, but we won't really notice until 2022-23.

just like before the market crashed but it took a while for the ripples to spread. I was still building projects in Dallas in 2010, but the 08 recession finally hit hard around 2011. I'm talking no work to be had!

so I'm thi king the chain of events will be similar, but not the same. all of this stuff will co.e to a head soon and in 2023 there won't be much building going on and there will be a surplus of houses again along with higher interest rates, lower market values, and did i mention less work?


the lower market values are gonna trigger a mess. people who are out of work or under employed will not be able to refinance for lesser rates, sell to make a profit, or anything because that house they just bought is now worth less than they owe.


how do we prepare for this? well I suggest you take ALL that money from the government hand outs and tax refunds and try to refinance at a lower rate and lower your house payment now. try to get your cost of living down to what it was just after Bush left office. lower cost of living is a good way to combat lower wages.


btw someone please tell my wife we don't need a new pick up.....or more payments.

 

[Hinotori]

We bought a place we could afford even if hubby lost his job. That was the level I was aiming for. So when hubby has been between jobs, it's been ok for us.

We just spent a bunch of money to fix up my truck. It was more cost efficient to do so. It's a 1997 F150 but it has the full on tow package. I think my uncle got every extra when he bought it. Got to say the heated mirrors make my hubby jealous.

We're way behind many people our age on paying off a house and all that because hubby spent 20 in the Navy. However, we don't have to really worry about medical bills because of that. We also have his retirement to fall back on. Mom says in her opinion the medical ia worth the trade off.

 

[farmerjan]

I totally agree with you on getting your financial house in as good an order as you can. Refinancing now at the low rates is the smartest thing to do. Getting all credit cards and payments ...paid off... Try to not incur any new payments...

@Chic Rustler : please tell your wife .....you do NOT need a new truck or more payments. All according what happens with all the nuts with this green new deal stuff, you might find that a new "fossil fuel" vehicle will be an even worse burden.... Don't let her talk you into a new vehicle.... putting a couple thousand into an existing one is much more sensible if it needs work; saving money right now and getting as far out of debt as possible is much smarter.

I am as far "behind" with just buying a house at 67.... my interest rate is less than 3%..... going to pay off all the credit cards in the next 2-3 months, and stay out of debt. Vehicles all long since paid off..... trying to find an engine for my subaru forrester that was getting near 30 mpg.... the newer they are, the more complicated they get and the more it costs to fix them too.....but I didn't buy the house at my "limit" and am going to do some work on this and then will have more equity even if prices fall. Have to do some serious work with a new heating system... but am probably going with an outside wood furnace now since I need to completely replace it. Old furnace is rusted out and not salvageable. So, not in the budget but it will have to be done.

Due to the very low interest rates, I am not going to pay it off sooner.... I am going to squirrel away money and not put it to the mortgage.... because I may need the money instead of using a card at much higher interest rate.

Another thing, I am going to get the oil tank filled here at the house this week. I put 100 gal in it @1.78/gal, in Oct, with the plan that they needed oil in it to get the furnace up and going. Then found out the furnace was totally no good. So in late Dec., I got 100 gal put in the tank at the rented house.... @2.18/gal. That is $.40 gal more in less than 3 months. Gas is going up every few days here. Diesel will continue to go up. If nothing else, it will be in the tank for use in the tractors if nothing else. If you have a tank that you can store some fuel; get it filled and then try to keep it filled so that the higher costs of refills is not as painful in smaller amounts.... use a fuel additive to keep it useable.

With the ones getting in, even if only for a couple of years, it is going to get very expensive to use our vehicles. Gas is going to go up and diesel is too..... We are looking at 3.00 to 4.00 gas again.....Diesel is already up to 2.75 here at the truck stop that was only 2.35 a couple of weeks ago..... I am going to try to hedge my bets and have it here. I am hoping that DS fills the tanks at the farm we rent and he is trying to buy..... better to have it for the summer work coming.

Get your seeds now, and have them.... most are all viable for at least 2 years so if you don't use them now, they will still be good.

I think we are looking at interest rates for houses and all to hit the sky high limits like they did in the 60's.... my parents built a house in 66 and I remember mortgage rates in the 14% range...... If they didn't have the land, they never would have been able to do it. And they refinanced at least once or twice I am sure.... I was a kid....
So if you have a mtg rate over 4%.... get it refinanced NOW..... Pay off your cc and debts that are higher than your mtg and then STOP SPENDING....... on stuff that you don't need to have.

 

[flowerbug]

we'll see.

i'm thinking things will be ok. there's a lot of people who want houses who can't get them so there is built up demand. right now is a great time to refinance while the interest rates are low.

i always try to keep debt as low as possible so i'm not worried too much about what interest rates might do, but if the rates increase a lot then it would likely put a lot of pressure on the stock market and people would see the value of their retirement funds drop. for me i don't think it would matter either way as if one goes up the other goes down but it also increases my income so might be a wash there.

 

[Fixit]

Well I guess I am ahead off the curve. Place is paid for . It's not much but as long as I can pay the property tax it's mine. It's off grid so no monthly bills except Internet and phone .

 

[farmerjan]

Good for you @Fixit. I would be there if I had done things differently but am going from here. Hope to do things better, going forward.

 

[Hinotori]

We have mortgage, all insurance, electricity, cell phones, and garbage/recycle.

We're reducing trash, however it's still more feasible for us to have pick up than drop it off ourselves. We wouldn't save any money unless we had a place to keep trash rat free for at least a month. Only way to make it break even. Trash pick up is $30 a month. Dump drop rate is a minimum of $28 a load.

We don't have state income tax, but sales tax and property tax are killer.

 

[Lazy Gardener]

It ALWAYS makes sense to push to be debt free. So many of the things we think we need... are not really needs. Often, hubby and I think the situation through, and come to the conclusion that we can re-purpose, re-use, re-cycle... or we really didn't need it in the first place. Can't tell you how often we've added an extra bay onto the shop (in our minds)... First on one side, then on the back. Then, we think it through, and come to the conclusion that what we don't need is more storage for more stuff. What we really need is to purge a lot of stuff and re-organize the rest of the stuff. Same goes with automotive and other $$$ eaters. As we move forward in this post-covid world, the economy is going to continue to reel. It's my prediction that the economic stability we used to know is a thing of the past. My goals: hunker down, grow as much food as I can, and cut my $$ footprint. Learn as much as I can about self care.

 

[baymule]

Yep, get yourself financially set and be ready for whatever comes.

 

[Hinotori]

Now we do use our 2 credit cards. Which I pay fully every 2 weeks. They are cash back cards, so it pays us to use them. I won't have a card through anywhere other than our credit union. If there is a store data breach, canceling the one card isn't a hardship, unlike it can be for a debit card. Second low limit card is only used for Amazon and the other rare online purchases.

Even back when we had money issues when he was stationed in Virginia Beach (it's expensive to live there) we may have carried balances and had loans, but we always were careful on extra payments. We've always had very good credit even if it did take almost 3 years to get our feet under us after he got a civilian job.

Hubby used to say I thought way to far ahead on things, but it's proven to be accurate too many times.